Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
