What Makes The Current US Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?

Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.

Some government services face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as both parties – as well as the President – can see some merit in digging in.

Here are the four ways in which things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare

Democratic supporters have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.

Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation and averting a shutdown early this year. This time he's holding firm.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to show they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Opposing the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.

2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of the cutbacks in government employment that have featured the current presidential term to date.

The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".

Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".

The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the key official.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust between both parties

While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.

Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.

House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.

The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy is fragile

Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.

The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.

Conversely, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.